Prediabetes in Teens: A Wake-Up Call?

What if I told you that nearly 1 in 3 teens in the U.S. — kids between the ages of 12 and 17 — now have prediabetes?

That’s not a typo. According to brand-new data from the CDC, a whopping 32.7% of adolescents are living with prediabetes. That’s around 8.4 million kids.

What’s Going On?

The data, pulled from the long-running National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), looked at blood sugar levels (via fasting glucose and A1C tests) and asked teens if they’d ever been diagnosed with diabetes.

What they found: prediabetes among teens is becoming more common. Back in 2015–2016, estimates were around 28%. Before that, closer to 20%. Now? Over 32%. That’s a sharp jump.

Why It Matters

Having prediabetes as a teen doesn’t automatically mean they’ll get type 2 diabetes. In fact, many adolescents’ blood sugar levels normalize after puberty. But it does mean their pancreas is under stress, and their body isn’t processing sugar as efficiently as it should.

And for those who do go on to develop type 2 diabetes, it can come with serious health complications — heart disease, kidney problems, even vision loss — and those risks can start showing up early in life. That’s the real concern.

“These new prediabetes data among adolescents serve as a wake-up call,” said Dr. Christopher Holliday of the CDC. “The good news is it’s not too late to change course.”

Not All Teens Will Develop Diabetes — But Some Will

Dr. Meg Bensignor, a pediatric endocrinologist at the University of Minnesota, says that while we can’t predict exactly who will go from prediabetes to type 2 diabetes, there are red flags:

• Higher BMI at diagnosis

• Higher A1C levels

• Rapid weight gain

• Social drivers of health, like access to nutritious food or opportunities to be active

Because of the unpredictability, Bensignor treats every teen with prediabetes as someone at high risk — just in case. And that makes sense: kids with type 2 tend to lose pancreas function faster than adults.

Dr. Nancy Crimmins, another pediatric endocrinologist from Cincinnati Children’s Hospital, pointed out that studies show somewhere between 45% and 75% of kids with prediabetes actually go back to normal blood sugar levels after puberty. That’s hopeful — but also inconsistent.

“One of the huge questions in our field is, can we identify who those kids are who are going to progress to type 2 and who aren’t?”

Puberty Complicates the Picture

Puberty itself makes insulin resistance worse for most teens — even those without a weight issue. It’s a natural part of growing up. But for kids already at risk, it can push them closer to the edge.

What Should Parents Watch For?

The American Diabetes Association recommends testing kids age 10 and older who have a BMI above the 85th percentile, plus one or more of the following:

• A parent who had gestational diabetes

• A family history of type 2 diabetes

• Belonging to a racial or ethnic minority group

• Signs like darkened skin (often around the neck or armpits), or skin tags

Social and economic factors also play a huge role. Access to healthy food, safe places to be active, and even time to focus on well-being are not evenly distributed. That’s a systemic issue that goes far beyond willpower.

Where Do We Go From Here?

The research community is taking notice. A new NIH-funded study, called the DISCOVERY trial, is trying to answer the exact question everyone’s asking: Which teens with prediabetes will develop type 2, and which won’t?

We’re still in the early stages of understanding type 2 diabetes in kids — it wasn’t even something seen in children a few decades ago. Now, it’s something pediatricians and parents need to have on their radar.

Final Thoughts

Some leaders in the healthcare community worry that these numbers are inflated due to a new method of reporting by the CDC. They didn't publish the raw data or explain the precise method shift. Instead, they released a brief 600-word summary online. The report claims this reflects "updated science and technologies," yet experts say there's no transparent rationale or peer-reviewed detail on how results were calculated. Some worry these figures are inflated, however, they also acknowledge it aligns with what clinicians are seeing - more obesity and elevated teen blood sugar.

The bottom line? Prediabetes in teens is common, but it’s not a life sentence. With early action — healthier meals, more physical activity, regular checkups — many kids can avoid progressing to type 2 diabetes altogether.

As Dr. Holliday put it, “It’s not too late to change course.”

And for millions of teens, that might be the most important message of all.

Read the study on the CDC website HERE.